[leucifer]

None of you will be on facebook in 5 years.

I'm moving to Google Buzz.

[Banana]

None of you will be on facebook in 5 years.

why?

[BIRD33]

why?

From what I read its losing steam and sign ups have stagnated.Remember myspace?In 5 years there will be something else hot on the web that people will gravitate to plus I think the whole over sharing thing will swing the other way and people will stop doing it because back round checks for jobs include social networking sites.Its not worth it at that point.Mothers will still use it to show off their kids but even that can be taken over by another similar site.

[leucifer]

From what I read its losing steam and sign ups have stagnated.Remember myspace?In 5 years there will be something else hot on the web that people will gravitate to plus I think the whole over sharing thing will swing the other way and people will stop doing it because back round checks for jobs include social networking sites.Its not worth it at that point.Mothers will still use it to show off their kids but even that can be taken over by another similar site.

You could be right, the internet culture is very fickle, and like Vegas a lot of things don't stick around long. However, FaceBook started in 2004 so it has been around for 6 years now, a decent amount of time to hold a large audience. MySpace started in 2002 so it wasn't like it had years to stagnate before FaceBook came along.

I think people will have to get smarter about the oversharing, but that can be achieved in part by using the privacy rules intelligently. For example, no one I work with now, or ever worked with, can see my statuses.

What FaceBook has going for it at this point is size. Its gotten so many people on there to connect with old friends, etc, that for another site to convince everyone to move is going to take a lot of effort. I think that is FaceBook is around in 5 years, it will be, at the least, a vastly different creature.

[BIRD33]

You could be right, the internet culture is very fickle, and like Vegas a lot of things don't stick around long. However, FaceBook started in 2004 so it has been around for 6 years now, a decent amount of time to hold a large audience. MySpace started in 2002 so it wasn't like it had years to stagnate before FaceBook came along.

I think people will have to get smarter about the oversharing, but that can be achieved in part by using the privacy rules intelligently. For example, no one I work with now, or ever worked with, can see my statuses.

What FaceBook has going for it at this point is size. Its gotten so many people on there to connect with old friends, etc, that for another site to convince everyone to move is going to take a lot of effort. I think that is FaceBook is around in 5 years, it will be, at the least, a vastly different creature.

Everything in your last three sentences could have been written about Myspace 5 years ago.I see it becoming uncool with the kids in high school because its something their parents use.Once that happens, which I think it has already the site will be seen as something for old squares and that will slowly kill it.Add in the competition from similar sites that seem cooler and easier to use and you are going to have a anemic version of what facebook is today.It will be a site for people over 35 who want to show off their kids pictures.I'm sure it will be around in some form but not to where its this big cultural focal point.

[leucifer]

Everything in your last three sentences could have been written about Myspace 5 years ago.I see it becoming uncool with the kids in high school because its something their parents use.Once that happens, which I think it has already the site will be seen as something for old squares and that will slowly kill it.Add in the competition from similar sites that seem cooler and easier to use and you are going to have a anemic version of what facebook is today.It will be a site for people over 35 who want to show off their kids pictures.I'm sure it will be around in some form but not to where its this big cultural focal point.

Agreed, I think it will die down to where it is not the cultural phenomenon it is today. I think it might take more than 5 years to really go away though. People are getting burnt out on switching social networks and having to set up new ones; this is evidenced by people's resistance to Buzz before it is even really out ("Another place to set statuses and talk to people?? :roll"). I think the kids that are 8 - 13 today will be the ones who are willing to sign up on a new site in part because they're not really on Fb now anyway and in part because of what you said about their parents using it. FaceBook will be able to maintain user dominance, if not cultural notice, until that group comes along and wipes them out.

[Jimmy]

meh...

[BIRD33]

Agreed, I think it will die down to where it is not the cultural phenomenon it is today. I think it might take more than 5 years to really go away though. People are getting burnt out on switching social networks and having to set up new ones; this is evidenced by people's resistance to Buzz before it is even really out ("Another place to set statuses and talk to people?? :roll"). I think the kids that are 8 - 13 today will be the ones who are willing to sign up on a new site in part because they're not really on Fb now anyway and in part because of what you said about their parents using it. FaceBook will be able to maintain user dominance, if not cultural notice, until that group comes along and wipes them out.

Myspace was bought for 580 million.It looked unstoppable at the time.The internet is like you said fickle.10 years facebook might be the answer to a trivia question on the 2000's.