[BIRD33]

Who watches SNL?

How bout that picture of Obama in a Muslim outfit from when he toured somalia as a senator that the Clinton campaign is passing around?Real classy.Does she really think at this point that will matter?

[Flumper Barflusterbutt]

Who watches SNL?

How bout that picture of Obama in a Muslim outfit from when he toured somalia as a senator that the Clinton campaign is passing around?Real classy.Does she really think at this point that will matter?

I was just telling a guy in the office about SNL the other night. :lool:

Did you see the bit with Huckabee during the news? Holy shit that was funny.

They've got to get a better Obama impersonator though. Funny skit, but that guy was shit as far as an impersonation. I love you.

[Flumper Barflusterbutt]

Wait. You were making fun of me for watching SNL weren't you? I love you.

[BIRD33]

Old people and teenagers with nothing to do on saturday night watch SNL.

[Flumper Barflusterbutt]

Old people and teenagers with nothing to do on saturday night watch SNL.

And your point is?

I love you.

[Flumper Barflusterbutt]

So anyway, I know you want to know this.

They are doing the news and introduce a special guest. Governor Mike Huckabee.

So, Huckabee rolls up a chair behind the news desk and they interview him.

News Guy: So, Mr. Huckabee. The one question that I think everyone wants to ask you. You realize that it is mathematically impossible for you to get enough delegates to win the Republican nomination. Why don't you drop out.

Huckabee: Well, I was never very good at math. I'm in this to win it.

News Guy: But its impossible. You can't win. Why stay in the race?

Huckabee: I'm not a quitter. We are going to win this thing.

News Guy: Okay, Mr. Huckabee. That's all the time we have. Thank you for stopping by.

Huckabee: (waves). Thanks for having me.

News Guy: (uncomfortable wait). (starts to talk then looks at Huckabee still sitting beside him). Mr. Huckabee. Thank you for coming. We are done now. I appreciate you stopping by.

Huckabee: Okay Thanks.

News Guy: (more waiting) (looks at Huckabee still there in the chair). Um. Governor? I hate to be rude, but we are finished here.

Huckabee: Ok.

News Guy: (waits) Sir, you are going to have to leave. Thank you.

Huckabee: Oh, I'm sorry. I've never been good at picking up on that sort of stuff. (then he leaves).

I love you.

[Anhil8tor]

I've come to accept the fact that a democrat is going to win this election and take more of my check to fund the programs that will be added.

[Flumper Barflusterbutt]

You know, I like Obama's commercials, but Jesus Christ. Don't these fucking campaigns have enough money to make 10 or 12 commercials. Why do they have to play the same fucking commercials over and over and fucking over. Every fucking 15 minutes we hear the same fucking commercials. They have to be paying out the ass to put these on the air. Why can't they spend some of that $$$ on making different commercials? Crazy. I love you.

[Flumper Barflusterbutt]

Wow, the campaign is in full swing right now down here. You can't even keep up with all of the campaign stops, rallies, people endorsing him or her.

Right now it is a dead heat, according to all of the polls down here. Every major newspaper in Texas has come out endorsing Obama. They say it will come down the the black and hispanic vote, but mostly on how many voters return to vote a second time in the caucuses.

I predict it will be so close it won't matter. Obama might barely squeak by. Maybe 48% to 46%, but it won't matter. If Hillary doesn't pick up more than 50% of the delegates she's toast. I love you.

[BIRD33]

Tuesday night will be the end of the Clinton campaign.She'll probably drop our Wednesday morning.She needs to win every upcoming primary by more than 70% to catch up in delegates otherwise she has to go to super delegates but she won't because that doesnt look fair.If she wins both Texas and Ohio she'll stick around.If she splits and only wins the one by a few % points she'll be done.

[Flumper Barflusterbutt]

Tuesday night will be the end of the Clinton campaign.She'll probably drop our Wednesday morning.She needs to win every upcoming primary by more than 70% to catch up in delegates otherwise she has to go to super delegates but she won't because that doesnt look fair.If she wins both Texas and Ohio she'll stick around.If she splits and only wins the one by a few % points she'll be done.

Man, I just don't see how she can get any kind of a convincing win in Texas right now. The polls have been edging up for Obama every single day since they hit the state 2 weeks ago. He has finally got it to a dead heat right now. 46% Obama and 46% clinton with +/-4% error. That was yesterday's poll. The big guess is who shows up at the polls and that whole "second" vote caucus thing at 7 pm.

Just because of the trends at the polls, I am going to guess that Obama pulls off a slight lead on Tuesday. He's been steadily gaining ground every day. I love you.

[BIRD33]

Man, I just don't see how she can get any kind of a convincing win in Texas right now. The polls have been edging up for Obama every single day since they hit the state 2 weeks ago. He has finally got it to a dead heat right now. 46% Obama and 46% clinton with +/-4% error. That was yesterday's poll. The big guess is who shows up at the polls and that whole "second" vote caucus thing at 7 pm.

Just because of the trends at the polls, I am going to guess that Obama pulls off a slight lead on Tuesday. He's been steadily gaining ground every day. I love you.

I read that in Texas the delegates awarded are based on the turnout for each county in the last presidential election.So if your county had a huge turnout the last election it awards more delegates.Supposedly the turnout in the 2004 elections was heavy for black counties voting against GWB (Katrina) and the turnout for hispanic counties was very low.By that logic Obama votes by the blacks will count more than the hispanics voting for Hillary.She's in a world of hurt.

[BIRD33]

Ohio
Obama-41 Clinton-56

Texas
Obama-47 Clinton-51

[Flumper Barflusterbutt]

Ohio
Obama-41 Clinton-56

Texas
Obama-47 Clinton-51

Ohio
Obama 47 Clinton 50

Texas
Obama-51 Clinton 47

Reasoning: It seems that in recent days Clinton has fortified herself in Ohio. I think she wins that one, but narrowly. In Texas, its going to come down to the Blacks and Hispanics and especially who will get voters to the late night caucuses. The weather was pretty bad in Texas yesterday, so most of the hispanics will be home today with no work. They'll be too drunk to vote tonight. The blacks will most likely turn out for the caucuses because I'm sure punch and cookies and food will be served. They love to go to meetings and stuff. Flumper thinks the black caucus voters will carry Texas for Obama. I love you.

[BIRD33]

Ohio
Obama 47 Clinton 50

Texas
Obama-51 Clinton 47

Reasoning: It seems that in recent days Clinton has fortified herself in Ohio. I think she wins that one, but narrowly. In Texas, its going to come down to the Blacks and Hispanics and especially who will get voters to the late night caucuses. The weather was pretty bad in Texas yesterday, so most of the hispanics will be home today with no work. They'll be too drunk to vote tonight. The blacks will most likely turn out for the caucuses because I'm sure punch and cookies and food will be served. They love to go to meetings and stuff. Flumper thinks the black caucus voters will carry Texas for Obama. I love you.

I made my picks based on these two states being the whitest in the nation.I do think that the vote and then go to a caucus type of primary will hurt Obama's #'s with the blacks.Thats a pain in the ass to do.I'm factoring that with all the whites going with Clinton into my picks.

The question now is if she doesnt win by a margin big enough to make a difference what will be her reasoning as to staying in the race?

[Flumper Barflusterbutt]

I made my picks based on these two states being the whitest in the nation.I do think that the vote and then go to a caucus type of primary will hurt Obama's #'s with the blacks.Thats a pain in the ass to do.I'm factoring that with all the whites going with Clinton into my picks.

The question now is if she doesnt win by a margin big enough to make a difference what will be her reasoning as to staying in the race?

I feel pretty confident that she won't win either state by enough delegates to keep her in the race. But I haven't run the numbers, just going by local news reports. The news last night said that Obama appears to have put together a more organized effort to get voters to come back to the second vote at the caucus. Blacks like to do stuff at night, like church. I think they will get all dressed up and feel really important going to elect the first black president. The hispanics? Not so much. I love you.

[BIRD33]

You're probably right that this is a big moment for blacks like myself as far as how important this is to them regarding electing the first black president.Thats pretty good motivation for them to go out.

We won't know how well she did delegate wise in Texas until tommorow when they figure out what county voted for who.

You'd think that Ohio with its depressed economy would be more anti Clinton with her pro NAFTA views.I really think they just don't like the black guy.

[Flumper Barflusterbutt]

You're probably right that this is a big moment for blacks like myself as far as how important this is to them regarding electing the first black president.Thats pretty good motivation for them to go out.

We won't know how well she did delegate wise in Texas until tommorow when they figure out what county voted for who.

You'd think that Ohio with its depressed economy would be more anti Clinton with her pro NAFTA views.I really think they just don't like the black guy.

I saw something on the news last night that was so shocking that I am sure that I saw it wrong. I saw where Obama had been working hard in San Antonio and that he actually had a double digit lead on the polls in San Antonio. Surely that can't be right. San Antonio is like 80% hispanic.

They also said that Obama had a lead with white women. I'm going to be glad when this is over. The ads have really turned from being really good, to being really desperate. Hillary is running one now that is titled "If there was a global crisis and the phone rang in the white house at 3 am, who would you want answering that call?" And the picture is panning to kids sleeping in their beds.

Wasn't that a fucking Sat night live skit a few years ago? I love you.

[BIRD33]

Why does every thing in politics revolve arond SNL to you?

Supposedly Mondale came out with that add first.I liked Obama's answer to it which was along the line of "When the call came to Hillary over the Iraq war she made the choice and now admits it.Why not go with someone who got it right the first time".

[Flumper Barflusterbutt]

No, I heard someone the other day (after she used that 3am phone call line) in the debate say that it was a skit on SNL. Maybe it was a spoof of Mondale's campaign. But his response was spot on. The dude doesn't miss very often. I love you.

[ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d-MHPopRsN0&feature=related"]YouTube - Barack Obama: If the Red Phone Rings, Call Me NOT Hillary[/ame]