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So I was watching the State of the Union last night.... - Printable Version

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So I was watching the State of the Union last night.... - BIRD33 - 04-22-2008

Flumper Barflusterbutt Wrote:Why are you leaving out 9%. Will there be that many still voting edwards, or does PA have some local guy on the ballot that none of us know about (sup Ron Paul?).

I think it will be single digit. I was thinking about 54 to 46. I hope she's writing her "I'm Hillary Clinton and I'm not smarter than a black muslim named Hussein Obama" speech. I love you.


I'm in a pool and someone else pointed that out to me.In the past primarys there have been few that add up to 100%.Some undecided and write in votes but I'm being told PA will only allow you to vote for one or the other.I revised my pick to Clinton 57%-Obama 43%.I see her kicking his ass in PA.Historically blacks and young people don't turn out well and I think at best he can hope for is a few % more showing up but not enough to make a huge difference.PA is three things more than anything else,white,catholic and old.Those are her strongest supporters and I see them coming out big to support her.

If it is a single digit win for her I don't see how she can stay on when at most she can pick up only one or two more delegates than him.She could be out by Friday.I see this going for a few more weeks.

So I was watching the State of the Union last night.... - Flumper Barflusterbutt - 04-22-2008

BIRD33 Wrote:I'm in a pool and someone else pointed that out to me.In the past primarys there have been few that add up to 100%.Some undecided and write in votes but I'm being told PA will only allow you to vote for one or the other.I revised my pick to Clinton 57%-Obama 43%.I see her kicking his ass in PA.Historically blacks and young people don't turn out well and I think at best he can hope for is a few % more showing up but not enough to make a huge difference.PA is three things more than anything else,white,catholic and old.Those are her strongest supporters and I see them coming out big to support her.

If it is a single digit win for her I don't see how she can stay on when at most she can pick up only one or two more delegates than him.She could be out by Friday.I see this going for a few more weeks.

Tell me about the TV ads going on the past few weeks/month. Did you find the same thing that we had here in Texas? Over and over and over with the same fucking ads. Good ads, but jesus, sometimes they would play twice in the same hour. About every week or two they would change to a new ad. Toward the very end they got better, but the weeks leading up to it were crazy with the repetition.

I heard that Obama spent 3 times more $$$ than Clinton in TV ads. I think that will pay off for him at the polls. He makes good ads.

But my thoughts all along were "if you are spending this much money, why not have a new commercial every few days". I love you.

So I was watching the State of the Union last night.... - BIRD33 - 04-22-2008

Flumper Barflusterbutt Wrote:Tell me about the TV ads going on the past few weeks/month. Did you find the same thing that we had here in Texas? Over and over and over with the same fucking ads. Good ads, but jesus, sometimes they would play twice in the same hour. About every week or two they would change to a new ad. Toward the very end they got better, but the weeks leading up to it were crazy with the repetition.

I heard that Obama spent 3 times more $$$ than Clinton in TV ads. I think that will pay off for him at the polls. He makes good ads.

But my thoughts all along were "if you are spending this much money, why not have a new commercial every few days". I love you.


Its add central here right now,phone calls too.You can tell he's got more money than her right now because it seems like its 4 to 1 as far as his adds seen per hour compared to hers.Watching basketball last night there was at least one of his every commercial break.

I'm not sure its going to matter how many adds he's running.I think most peoples minds are made up especially ones who are actually going to vote.PA has been a clinton stronghold like California and New Jersey for decades.Add that together with the middle part of the state still living in the 1970's and I just don't see him changing any of their minds.I've had more than one person say to me "I'm not electing a rooster(canadian is on the outs) as president".

He just needs to ride out this possible defeat, not make any inflammatory comments on people clinging to religion and he'll be fine.All the numbers add up for him to get the nomination.

So I was watching the State of the Union last night.... - Anhil8tor - 04-22-2008

[ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pFJDdq0Iy10"]YouTube - WWE Political Candidate Bytes - Monday Night Raw!!![/ame]

I'm voting for McCain just based on this....

So I was watching the State of the Union last night.... - cLaY - 04-23-2008

Anhil8tor Wrote:YouTube - WWE Political Candidate Bytes - Monday Night Raw!!!

I'm voting for McCain just based on this....

Of course you are. You're an unintelligent Louisiana Redneck Wrastling Fan.

So I was watching the State of the Union last night.... - BIRD33 - 04-23-2008

Like 8 was ever going to vote for a black, a woman or anyone who isnt going to keep oil prices high.Guys an honorary saudi.

So I was watching the State of the Union last night.... - cLaY - 04-23-2008

So basically the Cunt has to talk a bunch of super delegates into going against the popular vote and completely tarnish the party in order to get the nomination. I wish someone would stab her gash with a rusty pitch fork.

So I was watching the State of the Union last night.... - BIRD33 - 04-23-2008

Get ready to get ready to hear the phrase "Obama can't win a battleground state" for the next few weeks.

So I was watching the State of the Union last night.... - cLaY - 04-23-2008

BIRD33 Wrote:Get ready to get ready to hear the phrase "Obama can't win a battleground state" for the next few weeks.

When voters are essentially split between nominees in "Battleground States" I'd say Obama has a lot better chance than The Cunt at winning the general election. Yes, she's winning in states with a lot of voters, but Obama is bringing in millions upon millions of new voters across the country. I wouldn't be surprised to see those same new voters turn their back on the general election all together should Hillary some how steal the nomination. Giving her the nomination is like handing the keys and garage door opener to the White House to the McCain family.

So I was watching the State of the Union last night.... - BIRD33 - 04-23-2008

cLaY Wrote:When voters are essentially split between nominees in "Battleground States" I'd say Obama has a lot better chance than The Cunt at winning the general election. Yes, she's winning in states with a lot of voters, but Obama is bringing in millions upon millions of new voters across the country. I wouldn't be surprised to see those same new voters turn their back on the general election all together should Hillary some how steal the nomination. Giving her the nomination is like handing the keys and garage door opener to the White House to the McCain family.

The problem with your theory is that as far as these millions of new voters he's bringing in they arent all in strategic areas where it will make a huge difference in the general election.No amount of new voters is going to overtake pennylvania's white\old voting block.Same thing in New Jersey.All the Clintons are saying and its a valid point is that the only way democrats ever win elections is by carrying the huge delegate states like California and New York,NJ,PA.If Mccain would win one of those which I think is unlikely it would doom the Democrat.No amount of pickups of new delegates from say kansas or montana is going to replace the loss of NJ.

If she some how wins the popular vote but has fewer delegates she'll pull an Al gore and act like because she has the most votes and won the battleground states you need to take the election she should get the super delegate votes.

So I was watching the State of the Union last night.... - Flumper Barflusterbutt - 04-23-2008

BIRD33 Wrote:The problem with your theory is that as far as these millions of new voters he's bringing in they arent all in strategic areas where it will make a huge difference in the general election.No amount of new voters is going to overtake pennylvania's whiteold voting block.Same thing in New Jersey.All the Clintons are saying and its a valid point is that the only way democrats ever win elections is by carrying the huge delegate states like California and New York,NJ,PA.If Mccain would win one of those which I think is unlikely it would doom the Democrat.No amount of pickups of new delegates from say kansas or montana is going to replace the loss of NJ.

If she some how wins the popular vote but has fewer delegates she'll pull an Al gore and act like because she has the most votes and won the battleground states you need to take the election she should get the super delegate votes.

I read the other day that this whole idea of Hillary being the only one that can win these "battleground states" is slightly flawed. The point was, that these states are nearly ALWAYS won by the democrats. The fact that they favor Hillary over Obama does not mean that they will not vote Democrat in the Nov election. Obama should actually be touting the fact that he is getting huge support in states that do not normally vote Democratic. He is turning out numbers in many of those "pivot" states that never vote or at least never vote Democratic.

The point is, Obama should still carry these large states in November if he is on the ballot, and he provides a better chance for the Democrats to carry some of the pivotal states that they not carry in November if Hillary is running. Something to think about.

I love you.

So I was watching the State of the Union last night.... - who - 04-23-2008

In Florida for the primary neither hillary nor barack ran any campaign ads

So I was watching the State of the Union last night.... - BIRD33 - 04-23-2008

Because it didnt count.great post.

So I was watching the State of the Union last night.... - BIRD33 - 04-24-2008

Flumper Barflusterbutt Wrote:I read the other day that this whole idea of Hillary being the only one that can win these "battleground states" is slightly flawed. The point was, that these states are nearly ALWAYS won by the democrats. The fact that they favor Hillary over Obama does not mean that they will not vote Democrat in the Nov election. Obama should actually be touting the fact that he is getting huge support in states that do not normally vote Democratic. He is turning out numbers in many of those "pivot" states that never vote or at least never vote Democratic.

The point is, Obama should still carry these large states in November if he is on the ballot, and he provides a better chance for the Democrats to carry some of the pivotal states that they not carry in November if Hillary is running. Something to think about.

I love you.

He should carry the big state.Should.Clinton will carry those states.Thats her argument.I'm not saying its a strong one but if she can convince delegates that Mccain can beat Obama in Pennsylvania and the other smaller states which are traditionally republican strongholds that Obama might pick won't stem the loss of losing a battleground state she might make it happen.Which pivot states are we talking about and how many does he need if he loses PA is her point.Not saying I agree with it but part of it is logical.Nobody wants to hear Obama say don't worry about New Jersey, I've got Montana and Iowa.He's got a real problem with whites and catholics that needs to be addressed.

So I was watching the State of the Union last night.... - Flumper Barflusterbutt - 04-24-2008

BIRD33 Wrote:He should carry the big state.Should.Clinton will carry those states.Thats her argument.I'm not saying its a strong one but if she can convince delegates that Mccain can beat Obama in Pennsylvania and the other smaller states which are traditionally republican strongholds that Obama might pick won't stem the loss of losing a battleground state she might make it happen.Which pivot states are we talking about and how many does he need if he loses PA is her point.Not saying I agree with it but part of it is logical.Nobody wants to hear Obama say don't worry about New Jersey, I've got Montana and Iowa.He's got a real problem with whites and catholics that needs to be addressed.

I understand what you are saying. But I think you can see what I am saying. If Obama gets the nod, and Hillary throws him her support, then he should do okay in those states. I think that the point is that if Hillary drops out and throws him her support, that combination should add up to more democratic votes than her getting the nomination and him supporting her. His voters just won't show up if he isn't top name on the ballot. Hers will/should. I love you.

So I was watching the State of the Union last night.... - BIRD33 - 04-24-2008

Will Hillary throw her support to him without the VP spot?

What if she supports Mccain?I wouldnt put it past her.They are tight.

Hillary can only shift women votes to Obama.I really don't see her shifting older white males or catholics.

So I was watching the State of the Union last night.... - BIRD33 - 04-24-2008

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/04/23/AR2008042302978.html?hpid=opinionsbox1


"When Pennsylvania exit polls came out late Tuesday afternoon showing a lead of 3.6 points for Hillary Clinton over Barack Obama, Democratic leaders who desperately wanted her to end her candidacy were not cheered. They were sure that this puny lead overstated Obama's strength, as exit polls nearly always have in diverse states with large urban populations. How is it possible, then, that Clinton, given up for dead by her party's establishment, won Pennsylvania in a 10-point landslide? The answer is the dreaded "Bradley effect."

Prominent Democrats only whisper when they compare Obama's experience, the first African American with a serious chance to be president, with what happened to Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley a quarter-century ago. In 1982, exit polls showed Bradley, who was black, ahead in the race for governor of California, but he ultimately lost to Republican George Deukmejian. Pollster John Zogby (who predicted Clinton's double-digit win Tuesday) said what practicing Democrats would not: "I think voters face to face are not willing to say they would oppose an African American candidate."

If there really is a Bradley effect in 2008, Zogby sees November peril for Obama in blue states. John McCain could win not only in Pennsylvania but also in Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota, and he can retain Ohio for the Republicans. There seems to be no way Clinton can overtake Obama in delegates and the popular vote. For unelected superdelegates to deprive Obama of the nomination would so depress African American general election voting that the nomination would be worthless for her. In a year when all normal political indicators point to Republican defeat on all fronts, the Democratic Party faces deepening difficulties whether Obama is nominated or rejected."

Obama might need Clinton as VP to win.

So I was watching the State of the Union last night.... - Flumper Barflusterbutt - 04-24-2008

BIRD33 Wrote:Obama might need Clinton as VP to win.

Interesting. It is strange that McCain would have any kind of chance whatsoever to get elected this year.

I wonder what this heated race between Obama and Hillary is going to do toward either of them having any campaign funds left to stage an attack on McCain through the fall. McCain isn't spending anything right now. They are both emptying their coffers to beat each other. I bet the two of them spent more money in Pennsylvania that McCain has spent since February.

No way Hillary takes the VP spot. Can you even imagine Bill Clinton taking the VP spouce roll? Do they even have a name for that? What would he be in charge of, picking out the table cloths? Ordering flowers? :lool:

I love you.

So I was watching the State of the Union last night.... - BIRD33 - 04-24-2008

Flumper Barflusterbutt Wrote:Interesting. It is strange that McCain would have any kind of chance whatsoever to get elected this year.

I wonder what this heated race between Obama and Hillary is going to do toward either of them having any campaign funds left to stage an attack on McCain through the fall. McCain isn't spending anything right now. They are both emptying their coffers to beat each other. I bet the two of them spent more money in Pennsylvania that McCain has spent since February.

No way Hillary takes the VP spot. Can you even imagine Bill Clinton taking the VP spouce roll? Do they even have a name for that? What would he be in charge of, picking out the table cloths? Ordering flowers? :lool:

I love you.


Obama's fine right now on money.Clintons the one thats hurting.When the general election comes around there will be a whole new round of fundraising for the democrat.Mccain when his campaign was crapping out had to agree to take matching funds from the goverment to keep going but that limits the amount he can spend so he kind of fucked himself.The Democrat will have 30 to 40% more to spend during the general.

I totally believe she will take the VP spot.Its all about the highest level of power she can rise to and being the first woman vice president is a pretty good accomplishment.Also if Obama's presidency is a success she'll have to wait 8 years for another shot and being attached to a successful president is a nice way to get elected president.Otherwise she'll have to hope that Obama loses which even with everything going on now its a small possibility another republican wins.The question really is will Obama offer it to her.I see him doing it only if he thinks its the only way to win.If he can get by with anyone else he'll do it.

So I was watching the State of the Union last night.... - Flumper Barflusterbutt - 04-24-2008

Well, that would be friggin hilarious to watch the two of them running together. I love you.