So I was watching the State of the Union last night.... - Printable Version

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So I was watching the State of the Union last night.... - Flumper Barflusterbutt - 03-07-2008

BIRD33 Wrote:Texas blacks did go apeshit compared to the ones in California and Virginia.I wonder if that has to do with Katrina or something.I don't sense the blacks in PA are that whipped up.I keep reading that hillary can't sustain this momentum for 7 weeks so Obama might have an edge come the primary.

Its kind of crazy if you look at how each county in Texas voted. The counties that have large black populations (urban especially) it was 60:40 in favor of Obama. In counties that don't have large black populations it was just the opposite 60:40 in favor of Clinton. I love you.

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So I was watching the State of the Union last night.... - BIRD33 - 03-07-2008

Flumper Barflusterbutt Wrote:Its kind of crazy if you look at how each county in Texas voted. The counties that have large black populations (urban especially) it was 60:40 in favor of Obama. In counties that don't have large black populations it was just the opposite 60:40 in favor of Clinton. I love you.

I fear that will be the way the rest of the country goes.I read that the young vote that propelled him to victory in Iowa is not turning out anywhere else.It will come down to seniors and white people,both not good for Obama.

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So I was watching the State of the Union last night.... - Flumper Barflusterbutt - 03-07-2008

BIRD33 Wrote:I fear that will be the way the rest of the country goes.I read that the young vote that propelled him to victory in Iowa is not turning out anywhere else.It will come down to seniors and white people,both not good for Obama.

The young vote never comes through for anyone. They get all worked up and then lose interest before its over. And then when the final day comes, they just don't vote. I love you.

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So I was watching the State of the Union last night.... - snarg - 03-09-2008

The superdelegates are watching to see if Obama can stiffen his backbone. After seeing their candidates lose races they should have won in 2000 and 2004 because they flinched at Republican political waterboarding, Democrats do not want to watch the bully swipe their lollipop a third time.

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So I was watching the State of the Union last night.... - BIRD33 - 03-09-2008

http://thehill.com/dick-morris/its-over-2008-03-06.html



The results are already clear. Obama will go to the Democratic Convention with a lead of between 100 and 200 elected delegates. The remaining question is: What will the superdelegates do then? But is that really a question? Will the leaders of the Democratic Party be complicit in its destruction? Will they really kindle a civil war by denying the nomination to the man who won the most elected delegates? No way. They well understand that to do so would be to throw away the party’s chances of victory and to stigmatize it among African-Americans and young people for the rest of their lives. The Democratic Party took 20 years to recover from the traumas of 1968 and it is not about to trigger a similar bloodletting this year.

John McCain’s nomination guarantees that the superdelegates wouldn’t dare. A perfectly acceptable alternative for most Democrats, McCain would harvest so large a proportion of Obama’s votes if Hillary steals the nomination that he would probably win. Even putting Obama on the ticket would not allay the anger of his supporters; it would just make him complicit in the robbery.

Will Hillary win Pennsylvania? Who cares? Even if she were to sweep the remaining primaries and caucuses by 10 points, she would move just 60 votes closer to Obama’s total of elected delegates. And she won’t sweep them all. Even if Hillary wins Pennsylvania, the largest prize up for grabs, Obama will probably win North Carolina, which is almost as large. He’s likely to win Mississippi and Wyoming and has a good shot in Oregon and Indiana. The most likely result of these coming contests is that Obama will be roughly where he is now, about 140 elected delegates ahead of Hillary.

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So I was watching the State of the Union last night.... - Flumper Barflusterbutt - 03-12-2008

Obama kills Hillary in Mississippi (not suprising). But he wins 67% to 31% (projected). There are, I think, 33 delegates at stake. So he picks up another 12 delegates to add to his lead over her.

I think at this point it is safe to say, that it is mathmatically impossible for her to beat him in the elected delegates before the convention. I love you.

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So I was watching the State of the Union last night.... - cLaY - 03-12-2008

He is also taking more delegates from Texas than she is because of the caucus results. I want that cunt to die.

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So I was watching the State of the Union last night.... - BIRD33 - 03-12-2008

She's going to get a lot of momentum coming off PA.If they revote in Florida or Michigan she could be trouble.

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So I was watching the State of the Union last night.... - cLaY - 03-12-2008

BIRD33 Wrote:She's going to get a lot of momentum coming off PA.If they revote in Florida or Michigan she could be trouble.

Is it momentum if they practically split delegates? Really its just a headline that she's winning "clinton wins pa"? right?

the whole revote thing is bullshit, and not because i'm an Obama supporter.

this will go down as the worst yet most exciting election ever regardless of who wins.

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So I was watching the State of the Union last night.... - Flumper Barflusterbutt - 03-12-2008

BIRD33 Wrote:She's going to get a lot of momentum coming off PA.If they revote in Florida or Michigan she could be trouble.

What kind of margin of victory can you imagine that she could take out of PA? And how many delegates are at stake?

Seriously, she campaigned in Mississippi that she would put Obama on her ticket, so that a vote for her would include him as well? How fucking lame is that? I love you.

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So I was watching the State of the Union last night.... - Flumper Barflusterbutt - 03-12-2008

PA has 158 delegates. I love you.

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So I was watching the State of the Union last night.... - BIRD33 - 03-12-2008

Flumper Barflusterbutt Wrote:What kind of margin of victory can you imagine that she could take out of PA? And how many delegates are at stake?

Seriously, she campaigned in Mississippi that she would put Obama on her ticket, so that a vote for her would include him as well? How fucking lame is that? I love you.

I'm just saying that after PA the clinton campaign will say Obama can't win a big state and isnt electable.She might be able to get the super delegates to give it to her.

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So I was watching the State of the Union last night.... - BIRD33 - 03-12-2008

An article advocating Condi as VP.Its ridiculous.Like any black person would vote for Condi over Obama.

http://www.newyorker.com/talk/comment/2008/03/17/080317taco_talk_hertzberg

It’s true that her record in office has been one of failure, from downgrading terrorism as a priority before 9/11 to ignoring the Israel-Palestine problem until (almost certainly) too late. But this does not seem to have done much damage to her popularity.

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So I was watching the State of the Union last night.... - BIRD33 - 03-12-2008

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So I was watching the State of the Union last night.... - Flumper Barflusterbutt - 03-12-2008

BIRD33 Wrote:

Very interesting. He's kicking her ass. I love you.

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So I was watching the State of the Union last night.... - Flumper Barflusterbutt - 03-13-2008

Hey BIRD. I heard on the news last night that the Texas caucuses were so fucked up that only 41% of them have been turned in. They said that we probably won't know until the convention the results from the rest of it, if even by then. I love you.

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So I was watching the State of the Union last night.... - BIRD33 - 03-13-2008

I read that too.They are saying if you look at the places that havent reported yet the demographics favor Obama so he should get more caucus delegates.

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So I was watching the State of the Union last night.... - Anhil8tor - 03-18-2008

you have the margin listed as 161... that isn't that much.

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So I was watching the State of the Union last night.... - Flumper Barflusterbutt - 03-18-2008

Anhil8tor Wrote:you have the margin listed as 161... that isn't that much.

Dude, that is a ton, when you consider that the only states that Hillary is winning are the big ones and there are only a few left and she only wins them by a small margin. The delegates are split based on percentage. So if she wins a big state by 54% to 46%, she only gets about 5 or 6 delegates to narrow the gap. It is pretty much mathematically impossible for her to close the gap much now before the convention. I love you.

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So I was watching the State of the Union last night.... - BIRD33 - 03-18-2008

Give her PA and the 100 or so she gets from PA and add the other states that he's supposed to do well in and he'll be up 50 or more delegates at the convention.The only way she can get the nomination is to convince superdelegates to vote for her 2-1.That basically ignoring the popular vote and giving the election to her in the same way democrats cried about gore getting screwed in 2000.

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