So I was watching the State of the Union last night....

So I was watching the State of the Union last night.... - Printable Version

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So I was watching the State of the Union last night.... - Flumper Barflusterbutt - 03-05-2008

BIRD33 Wrote:We wont know for a few days who wins delegate wise.I saw that he could lose the % of votes but still get more delegates.Supposedly the border towns of Texas went all Hillary but because they didnt have a large turnout in 2004 they have barely any delegates.Obama did well in Houston where there is a ton of delegates.

Obama took all of the major metropolitan areas. Dallas/FW, Houston, Austin, etc. Hillary took all of the smaller areas. Kind of crazy, but I guess that is where most of the black vote is located. Hillary came through with the Latino vote, but I still stand by my guess that the Latino's didn't caucus like the Blacks did. I love you.

So I was watching the State of the Union last night.... - BIRD33 - 03-05-2008

For the first time in my lifetime voting in a presidential primary in Pennsylvania will actually have some importance.Usually by the time we vote we're stuck with whoever the retard states choose.Unfortunalty it doesnt look good for Obama here.Pittsburgh is basically the same place as Ohio and has few blacks.The central part of the state in between Philly and Pittsburgh is deliverance country and has been referred to as Alabama and its very true.People hate blacks there.I deal with people every day from there that don't even try to hide it.He'll get the black vote in Philly and we have few Latino's so he's good there but the wealthy suburbs outside the city at best will split 50\50 if he doesnt get beat badly.Also Hillary is stronger with the unions here going back to her husband and thats basically every non black vote in philly.

So I was watching the State of the Union last night.... - Flumper Barflusterbutt - 03-05-2008

BIRD33 Wrote:For the first time in my lifetime voting in a presidential primary in Pennsylvania will actually have some importance.Usually by the time we vote we're stuck with whoever the retard states choose.Unfortunalty it doesnt look good for Obama here.Pittsburgh is basically the same place as Ohio and has few blacks.The central part of the state in between Philly and Pittsburgh is deliverance country and has been referred to as Alabama and its very true.People hate blacks there.I deal with people every day from there that don't even try to hide it.He'll get the black vote in Philly and we have few Latino's so he's good there but the wealthy suburbs outside the city at best will split 5050 if he doesnt get beat badly.Also Hillary is stronger with the unions here going back to her husband and thats basically every non black vote in philly.

Everyone is now saying that it will come down to Pennsylvania (and the superdelegates, but that's another story). They are saying that the demographics in Pennsylvania are about the same as Ohio, so the results should be about the same. But, unless I heard wrong, that is 6 weeks away. No telling what kind of new dirt and spin could pop up in that length of time. I love you.

So I was watching the State of the Union last night.... - Anhil8tor - 03-05-2008

mccain won't pull the armed services vote?

So I was watching the State of the Union last night.... - Paddy - 03-05-2008

Some old dude, a woman and a balck dude. There's nobody else?

So I was watching the State of the Union last night.... - BIRD33 - 03-05-2008

Republicans pull that(military vote) anyway every election.I'd say a little less this year considering some families are dealing with 2nd and 3rd deployments.

So I was watching the State of the Union last night.... - BIRD33 - 03-05-2008

Paddy Wrote:Some old dude, a woman and a balck dude. There's nobody else?

The country needs a guy in his 30's who just got a license and was run from a forum by a chick.

So I was watching the State of the Union last night.... - Paddy - 03-05-2008

I'm not a citizen.

So I was watching the State of the Union last night.... - BIRD33 - 03-05-2008

We're fucked then.

So I was watching the State of the Union last night.... - Flumper Barflusterbutt - 03-05-2008

McCain should just let his wife do his campaign speeches. I love you.

[ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wWsisxakxso&feature=related"]YouTube - Cindy McCain Looks Me In The Eye[/ame]

So I was watching the State of the Union last night.... - snarg - 03-05-2008

BIRD33 Wrote:It doesnt seem premature at all according to this reputable pundit.

and your other posts posts say it is still not over
get off the fence, tweety gore

So I was watching the State of the Union last night.... - BIRD33 - 03-05-2008

snarg Wrote:and your other posts posts say it is till not over
get off the fence, tweety gore

Rush to the ER.This post is the first sign of a stroke.

So I was watching the State of the Union last night.... - Flumper Barflusterbutt - 03-05-2008

BIRD33 Wrote:Rush to the ER.This post is the first sign of a stroke.

Have you noticed how every news agency that posts the "current" delegate count has different numbers? Some of them huge swings, like 200 different than other news agencies.

But assuming that they are 135 delegates apart going into last night (Obama +120 over Clinton). Then what did they do last night?

Let's say (for example) going in it was Obama at 1135 and Hillary 1000 delegates.

Texas
126 delegates in Primary vote (first election):

Hillary 51% = 64 delegates
Obama 47.4% = 60 delegates
So Hillary goes up 4 delegates on him.

67 delegates in Caucus vote (second election):

Hillary 48% = 32 delegates
Obama 52% = 35 delegates
So Obama takes back 3, now Hillary is up by 1 delegate

Vermont

Obama = 9 delegates
Clinton = 6 delegates
So Obama picks up 3, now he is up 2 on Hillary

Rhode Island

Clinton = 13 delegates
Obama = 8 delegates
So Clinton goes up 5, now she is up 3 on Obama

Ohio

Clinton = 73 delegates
Obama = 62 delegates
So Clinton goes up by 11, now she gains 14 on Obama

Total Delegates Last night

Clinton = 188 delegates.....her new total is 1188
Obama = 174 delegates.....his new total is 1309

Not much change, but he's going to have a hard sell saying that its still "the same". I love you.

So I was watching the State of the Union last night.... - BIRD33 - 03-05-2008

Flumper Barflusterbutt Wrote:Have you noticed how every news agency that posts the "current" delegate count has different numbers? Some of them huge swings, like 200 different than other news agencies.

But assuming that they are 135 delegates apart going into last night (Obama +120 over Clinton). Then what did they do last night?

Let's say (for example) going in it was Obama at 1135 and Hillary 1000 delegates.

Texas
126 delegates in Primary vote (first election):

Hillary 51% = 64 delegates
Obama 47.4% = 60 delegates
So Hillary goes up 4 delegates on him.

67 delegates in Caucus vote (second election):

Hillary 48% = 32 delegates
Obama 52% = 35 delegates
So Obama takes back 3, now Hillary is up by 1 delegate

Vermont

Obama = 9 delegates
Clinton = 6 delegates
So Obama picks up 3, now he is up 2 on Hillary

Rhode Island

Clinton = 13 delegates
Obama = 8 delegates
So Clinton goes up 5, now she is up 3 on Obama

Ohio

Clinton = 73 delegates
Obama = 62 delegates
So Clinton goes up by 11, now she gains 14 on Obama

Total Delegates Last night

Clinton = 188 delegates.....her new total is 1188
Obama = 174 delegates.....his new total is 1309

Not much change, but he's going to have a hard sell saying that its still "the same". I love you.

He obviously can't claim a victory after last night but he can tout his delegate totals and how little she actually gained by winning.I predict he will put heavy pressure on her to release her tax records and then imply that she's hiding something when she refuses to do so.I've read 4 or 5 articles today about how she can't catch up unless super delegates carry her.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap_campaignplus/20080305/ap_ca/on_deadline_clinton
Obama began Tuesday with an 11-race winning streak and a lead in the delegate chase in The Associated Press count â 1,386-1,276. His margin was larger â 1,187-1,035 â among pledged delegates chosen in primaries and caucuses.
Clinton has little chance of closing the gap because Democrats allocate most of their delegates proportionally, meaning the loser of a close contest earns nearly as many delegates as the winner. Even as she declared victory in Ohio, Clinton knew that Tuesday's results were unlikely to draw her much closer to Obama.
It doesn't get any better for Clinton after Tuesday. Just for kicks, pencil the New York senator in for landslide victories in Wyoming, Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Kentucky plus narrow victories in Guam, Indiana, North Carolina, Montana and South Dakota â scenarios that give her a hefty benefit of the doubt and then some. And what happens?
She still trails Obama.
Her only hope is that a solid majority of the nearly 800 superdelegates support her over Obama. Party rules allow them to act independently, but it's almost unfathomable that these political animals would not ratify the results from primaries and caucuses.
These folks know better than to defy the wishes over voters. No doubt they'll notice that six in 10 Democratic voters told pollsters Tuesday that so-called superdelegates should vote based on results of the primaries and caucuses rather than for the candidate they think has the best chance to win in November.

So I was watching the State of the Union last night.... - Flumper Barflusterbutt - 03-05-2008

BIRD33 Wrote:He obviously can't claim a victory after last night but he can tout his delegate totals and how little she actually gained by winning.I predict he will put heavy pressure on her to release her tax records and then imply that she's hiding something when she refuses to do so.I've read 4 or 5 articles today about how she can't catch up unless super delegates carry her.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap_campaignplus/20080305/ap_ca/on_deadline_clinton
Obama began Tuesday with an 11-race winning streak and a lead in the delegate chase in The Associated Press count â 1,386-1,276. His margin was larger â 1,187-1,035 â among pledged delegates chosen in primaries and caucuses.
Clinton has little chance of closing the gap because Democrats allocate most of their delegates proportionally, meaning the loser of a close contest earns nearly as many delegates as the winner. Even as she declared victory in Ohio, Clinton knew that Tuesday's results were unlikely to draw her much closer to Obama.
It doesn't get any better for Clinton after Tuesday. Just for kicks, pencil the New York senator in for landslide victories in Wyoming, Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Kentucky plus narrow victories in Guam, Indiana, North Carolina, Montana and South Dakota â scenarios that give her a hefty benefit of the doubt and then some. And what happens?
She still trails Obama.
Her only hope is that a solid majority of the nearly 800 superdelegates support her over Obama. Party rules allow them to act independently, but it's almost unfathomable that these political animals would not ratify the results from primaries and caucuses.
These folks know better than to defy the wishes over voters. No doubt they'll notice that six in 10 Democratic voters told pollsters Tuesday that so-called superdelegates should vote based on results of the primaries and caucuses rather than for the candidate they think has the best chance to win in November.

Hillary is going to make the claim that most of those delegates he won back in February and that the public opinion is changing as the race unfolds. She's going to argue that people know more about the candidates now and they have decided that she is the better candidate. Because of that, she should get the "fresh" opinion of the super delegates. She's going to say that is what they are for. That is the reason for having them. So that they can watch the entire campaign and then vote the will of the people at the end of the campaign, after all the speeches and after all of the media coverage of them.

Obama is going to say, "Wait a fucking minute. A delegate won is a delegate won. Doesn't matter when you win them."

I can see both arguments, but I still think the Democrats would be making a huge mistake to have the superdelegates void the vote of the people. Goes against everything they stand for. I love you.

So I was watching the State of the Union last night.... - Flumper Barflusterbutt - 03-05-2008

Uh Oh. Looks like Obama is really kicking Hillary's ass in the Texas Caucus vote.

38% Reporting

Obama 56%
Clinton 44%

So I was watching the State of the Union last night.... - Flumper Barflusterbutt - 03-06-2008

:lool:

Looks like Obama is actually going to win more delegates in Texas than Hillary.

40% Caucus counted so far:

Obama = 56% x 67 delegates = 38 delegates
Clinton = 44% x 67 delegates = 29 delegates

He beats her by 9 and she only beat him by 3 in the general election. Net gain of 6 delegates by Obama. Put a fork in her boys, she's done. I love you.

So I was watching the State of the Union last night.... - BIRD33 - 03-06-2008

apparently Obama can't count on the black vote coming out in force in every state.

http://www.slate.com/id/2185711/
You'd think black turnout would rise with a black presidential candidate fighting for the Dem nomination. But in California you'd be wrong, at least according to the 2008 exit poll, which put black turnout at 6% of the total, down from 8% in 2004. ... Backfill: The black percentage didn't increase in Florida or Virginia either, apparently (but did in Arizona). ... 11:37 P.M.

So I was watching the State of the Union last night.... - Flumper Barflusterbutt - 03-06-2008

BIRD33 Wrote:apparently Obama can't count on the black vote coming out in force in every state.

http://www.slate.com/id/2185711/
You'd think black turnout would rise with a black presidential candidate fighting for the Dem nomination. But in California you'd be wrong, at least according to the 2008 exit poll, which put black turnout at 6% of the total, down from 8% in 2004. ... Backfill: The black percentage didn't increase in Florida or Virginia either, apparently (but did in Arizona). ... 11:37 P.M.

I think that is going to change with time. The blacks in Texas went fucking insane trying to vote. The caucus votes are proving that out. I can't imagine why the blacks in Texas would go so apeshit over him and blacks in any of the other states wouldn't. I think his campaign just did a better job here. Maybe they've gotten better. I love you.

So I was watching the State of the Union last night.... - BIRD33 - 03-07-2008

Flumper Barflusterbutt Wrote:I think that is going to change with time. The blacks in Texas went fucking insane trying to vote. The caucus votes are proving that out. I can't imagine why the blacks in Texas would go so apeshit over him and blacks in any of the other states wouldn't. I think his campaign just did a better job here. Maybe they've gotten better. I love you.

Texas blacks did go apeshit compared to the ones in California and Virginia.I wonder if that has to do with Katrina or something.I don't sense the blacks in PA are that whipped up.I keep reading that hillary can't sustain this momentum for 7 weeks so Obama might have an edge come the primary.