[Banana]

As an african american and former black panther I have no idea how hard it was for Downey to play that role.

Of the people you listed nobody stands out as a lock for the Oscar so I think Ledger will get it as something like a lifetime achievement award.

Hollywood will do it to make themselves feel better.

The Oscar noms haven't been announced yet. I doubt this will be Ledger's competetion (comedic film actors are rarely nominated). I don't even know if Ledger will be nominated.