Expect the Oil Bubble to Pop at any minute - Printable Version
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Expect the Oil Bubble to Pop at any minute - Flumper Barflusterbutt - 10-17-2008
BIRD33 Wrote:Do you want to make a bet on if it goes up 15% a month after the election?This happens every election.
If you sold a product that you knew people were trying to make obsolete would you lower prices now knowing that in 15 years you will be selling 80% less of your product or would you try to get what you can now?
I never knew that. Oil goes up 15% in the month after elections? Why is that?
Because seriously, I don't think it will do that. Although in this market, 15% is not much in a whole month. I mean, on any one day you could have a refinery go down or a tanker wreck or whatever. 15% of $70 is only $10.50. That's not much of a swing right now.
Expect the Oil Bubble to Pop at any minute - BIRD33 - 10-17-2008
Flumper Barflusterbutt Wrote:You can't be this stupid. Seriuosly. Have you ever had an economics class? Fuck that, just use your common sense.
Let's say that the only thing you have to sell is oranges. There are several other dozen orange sellers around the world, but you have a bunch of oranges to sell. There is a guy called Uncle Sam that buys tons of oranges every year.
You hate Uncle Sam. But you love selling him oranges. You help drive up the prices of oranges so high that Uncle Sam has trouble affording them anymore. Its causing him serious problems, but he is still buying them from you.
Finally Uncle Sam says that he has had enough and he is going to figure out a way within the next 5 to 10 years to never have to buy another fucking orange from you as long as he lives.
You have two choices.
A. You can continue to fuck Uncle Sam for another 5 to 10 years and then lose him as a customer.
B. You can lower your prices on your oranges back to where its not feasible for Uncle Sam to look for other alternatives for your oranges because everything else costs too much and you know that he will always buy the cheapest alternative.
What if you know uncle sam is hell bent on not buying from you no matter what you do and the next few orange orders are your last?I don't need an economics class to tell me to get what I can while I can.
So you think if gas goes lower we're all going to forget how they have us by the balls and we'll just give up on energy independence?Keep in mind we are the only major user going green.Other developing countries will be hungry for gas and drive up prices.What fucking planet are you on?
They know the cash cow is dying a slow death no matter what so you pump it for all its worth before there are no sales at all.
So you're saying we should see a return of cheap gas?Nobody thinks that.
Expect the Oil Bubble to Pop at any minute - Flumper Barflusterbutt - 10-17-2008
BIRD33 Wrote:So you think if gas goes lower we're all going to forget how they have us by the balls and we'll just give up on energy independence?Keep in mind we are the only major user going green.Other developing countries will be hungry for gas and drive up prices.What fucking planet are you on?
They know the cash cow is dying a slow death no matter what so you pump it for all its worth before there are no sales at all.
So you're saying we should see a return of cheap gas?Nobody thinks that.
What I am saying is that these alternative fuel sources have costs. And if gas is cheaper there won't be anyone standing up to pay the additional costs. Why do you think we didn't go "green" 30 years ago?
The only reason biodiesel has gotten its foot off the ground is because diesel has to go over $3 per gallon to make it worthwhile.
Why do you think the Canadians are mining the shit out of their oil sands? Because unless crude sells for more than $40 a barrel they can't afford to get that shit out of the ground.
Well, now they can because they have had the luxury of the money and time to figure it out. Same with biodiesel. Now they've had the income to build the production facilities.
Expect the Oil Bubble to Pop at any minute - BIRD33 - 10-17-2008
Flumper Barflusterbutt Wrote:What I am saying is that these alternative fuel sources have costs. And if gas is cheaper there won't be anyone standing up to pay the additional costs. Why do you think we didn't go "green" 30 years ago?
The only reason biodiesel has gotten its foot off the ground is because diesel has to go over $3 per gallon to make it worthwhile.
Why do you think the Canadians are mining the shit out of their oil sands? Because unless crude sells for more than $40 a barrel they can't afford to get that shit out of the ground.
Well, now they can because they have had the luxury of the money and time to figure it out. Same with biodiesel. Now they've had the income to build the production facilities.
Do you really think that if all the sudden gas is back to a dollar a gallon we would just forget about alternative energy?You act like cost is the only reason we are doing this.
The train has left the station on this and people want a car that can drive 50 miles on electric before a gas engine kicks in regardless of how cheap gas is.
Are you prepared to back up your theory by saying we will see a return to gas lower than $2.50 a gallon any time soon?Go even half way and say gas prices will never rise above $4.50 a gallon.
Expect the Oil Bubble to Pop at any minute - Flumper Barflusterbutt - 10-17-2008
BIRD33 Wrote:Do you really think that if all the sudden gas is back to a dollar a gallon we would just forget about alternative energy?You act like cost is the only reason we are doing this.
The train has left the station on this and people want a car that can drive 50 miles on electric before a gas engine kicks in regardless of how cheap gas is.
Are you prepared to back up your theory by saying we will see a return to gas lower than $2.50 a gallon any time soon?Go even half way and say gas prices will never rise above $4.50 a gallon.
I absolutely believe that if gas ever got back to a dollar a gallon that 99% of everyone would forget about alternative energy. The only reason that it has gained this huge support base right now is because the alternative ideas are not financially feasible.
But, I don't think gas will get that cheap again. I think it will settle out slightly below $3 and stay there. I think that most of the petroleum companies/nations feel that is a safe level to keep alternative options from being feasible.
You will continue to see the public support for these alternative fuels, but you won't see some mass exodus to using them until they bring the costs down. That's just the way people are. It sounds good for other people to do it, but when its your dime you have to pay, most are going to opt for whatever is cheaper, and I think near term that will continue to be gas.
All it would take for gas to get back over the $4 mark is some refinery problems, a war, a boycott or something that alters the flow of petroleum.
Expect the Oil Bubble to Pop at any minute - BIRD33 - 10-17-2008
Flumper Barflusterbutt Wrote:I absolutely believe that if gas ever got back to a dollar a gallon that 99% of everyone would forget about alternative energy. The only reason that it has gained this huge support base right now is because the alternative ideas are not financially feasible.
But, I don't think gas will get that cheap again. I think it will settle out slightly below $3 and stay there. I think that most of the petroleum companies/nations feel that is a safe level to keep alternative options from being feasible.
You will continue to see the public support for these alternative fuels, but you won't see some mass exodus to using them until they bring the costs down. That's just the way people are. It sounds good for other people to do it, but when its your dime you have to pay, most are going to opt for whatever is cheaper, and I think near term that will continue to be gas.
All it would take for gas to get back over the $4 mark is some refinery problems, a war, a boycott or something that alters the flow of petroleum.
So minus any disasters gas will always be around $3 a gallon?This is totally unrealistic and just assumes that OPEC has no other clients besides the US that are almost centuries away from alternative energy.
Would 8 comment on this since he's reaping the raping benefits?
Expect the Oil Bubble to Pop at any minute - Flumper Barflusterbutt - 10-18-2008
BIRD33 Wrote:So minus any disasters gas will always be around $3 a gallon?This is totally unrealistic and just assumes that OPEC has no other clients besides the US.
Would 8 comment on this since he's reaping the raping benefits?
I never talk in terms of "always". But I think that if they hold gas at that level, then they will ward off most viable attempts at coming up with alternatives.
Although, I disagree with this method, but it seems to be the one they use.
If I had the oil, I would be charging a shitload for that stuff and trying to sell as little as I could to prolong the supply.
Expect the Oil Bubble to Pop at any minute - snarg - 10-18-2008
flump wins this round
sorry, tweety
Expect the Oil Bubble to Pop at any minute - cLaY - 10-18-2008
I filled up at 2.41 yesterday. I still want my electric car. We need to quit paying foreign countries for our energy sources and find something better for the environment.
Expect the Oil Bubble to Pop at any minute - Dagger - 11-13-2008
I loved paying $1.81 for gas today.
Expect the Oil Bubble to Pop at any minute - Flumper Barflusterbutt - 11-13-2008
I heard yesterday that T Boone Pickens has put a huge windfarm on hold in Texas right now because the cost of providing that energy is too much at current petroleum prices.
OPEC is listening to teh Flumper.
Expect the Oil Bubble to Pop at any minute - BIRD33 - 12-05-2008
[SIZE="4"]Merrill Lynch Says Oil Could Fall to $25[/SIZE]
http://www.cnbc.com/id/28066821
I'd say its popped.The oil cartel sees the writing on the wall.Does anyone disagree that if we would have elected Al Gore in 2000 this would have happened a decade ago?I believe we will look back on that election as the worst decision of the new millennium.
Expect the Oil Bubble to Pop at any minute - Anhil8tor - 12-05-2008
it needs to be around 80 bucks...
Expect the Oil Bubble to Pop at any minute - BIRD33 - 12-05-2008
Anhil8tor Wrote:it needs to be around 80 bucks...
Why so you can make money?Go fuck yourself.You made your money gouging us for 10 years now its time for you to suffer.
Expect the Oil Bubble to Pop at any minute - Anhil8tor - 12-05-2008
$25 is a bit ridiculous. The oilfield needs it around $60 to be profitable, $80 would be preferred.
I misplaces $700 somewhere in my house. No fucking idea where I put it. I've been racking my brain trying to retrace my steps but its not coming back.
Expect the Oil Bubble to Pop at any minute - BIRD33 - 12-05-2008
Anhil8tor Wrote:$25 is a bit ridiculous. The oilfield needs it around $60 to be profitable, $80 would be preferred.
I misplaces $700 somewhere in my house. No fucking idea where I put it. I've been racking my brain trying to retrace my steps but its not coming back.
I don't believe for one second it needs to be around $60 to make a profit.Thats total bullshit.
Expect the Oil Bubble to Pop at any minute - Flumper Barflusterbutt - 12-05-2008
BIRD33 Wrote:I don't believe for one second it needs to be around $60 to make a profit.Thats total bullshit.
The problem with making a profit drilling and selling oil is the root of why there is no real solution to this problem. Its just not a level playing field.
In the Middle East, you can basically stick a reed in the ground and get oil to come out. There is not much drilling cost and very very little exploration and research. Its like having a natural spring that runs right into water bottling plant. Not to mention labor costs, etc over there.
Now, over here? Much different question. The oil companies here spend tons and tons of money on research. And then, just imagine the cost of manufacturing, installing and drilling for just one off shore rig. Its like having to go to the moon to get buckets of salt water to bring back and turn into water for your water bottling plant.
No way the two will ever compete in any way. If crude is selling for the kind of price that it takes for us (and Canada) to make a profit, then the Arabs are rolling in cash.
And until some friggin genius comes along (like the guy that invented wheels to go on luggage), and finds an alternative source of power that can compete with $20 crude, then we are doomsday train to fuckhole oklahoma.
Expect the Oil Bubble to Pop at any minute - Paddy - 12-05-2008
And for many of the same reasons it's cheaper to make sneakers in the Philipines, toys in China, and run call centres in India.
Expect the Oil Bubble to Pop at any minute - Paddy - 12-05-2008
I'm not sure what my point is.
Expect the Oil Bubble to Pop at any minute - BIRD33 - 12-05-2008
Flumper Barflusterbutt Wrote:The problem with making a profit drilling and selling oil is the root of why there is no real solution to this problem. Its just not a level playing field.
In the Middle East, you can basically stick a reed in the ground and get oil to come out. There is not much drilling cost and very very little exploration and research. Its like having a natural spring that runs right into water bottling plant. Not to mention labor costs, etc over there.
Now, over here? Much different question. The oil companies here spend tons and tons of money on research. And then, just imagine the cost of manufacturing, installing and drilling for just one off shore rig. Its like having to go to the moon to get buckets of salt water to bring back and turn into water for your water bottling plant.
No way the two will ever compete in any way. If crude is selling for the kind of price that it takes for us (and Canada) to make a profit, then the Arabs are rolling in cash.
And until some friggin genius comes along (like the guy that invented wheels to go on luggage), and finds an alternative source of power that can compete with $20 crude, then we are doomsday train to fuckhole oklahoma.
I don't care where the oil comes from.A domestic source of oil does not excite me for the increased production costs you cited.No matter what we say the price is due to our costs the arabs will match our price even though their costs are still 50% below ours.Thats why the drill baby drill crap by the gop was such bullshit and speaks to how smart they think voters are.The only thing that really scares OPEC is our research into alternative fuel that doesnt involve their oil.